Anyone who has been involved in sports betting at TonyBet for a while and has already placed a large number of their own bets will definitely be familiar with the following problem: You analyze a game in detail and have identified a supposed advantage over the bookmaker and yet the bet is lost.
If this happens once or perhaps twice, it is of course within reason, as unforeseen things can always happen.
However, if you only play bets with a positive experience value, i.e. bets that contain value, over a period of several days or perhaps even weeks, and yet there is no monetary success. Then you can be sure that you are currently experiencing a bad downswing, which is probably costing you a lot of nerves and unfortunately also money. But first of all, what exactly is a downswing and how do you get out of a crisis phase in everyday betting?
Explanation of the term downswing in sports betting
The term describes a phase in which you make completely correct rational decisions, but these still do not lead to the desired success and you incur losses. In mathematical terms, this is simply the variance of betting, as there can be extremely good but also extremely bad phases. Sometimes it is the other way around and you win almost every bet.
From downswing to frustration bets
So far, a downswing is not yet a problem, because it will pass and the good phases described above, i.e. upswings, will also occur again. However, a problem arises when, for example, your own analysis habits change and you may even become a little impatient because you think that the next bet must definitely lead to a win. But this is precisely where a major danger lies, which is often underestimated by inexperienced sports bettors and which even the more professional among us are afraid of. Increasingly, so-called frustration bets are being played that would never have been considered under normal circumstances, but because one’s own discipline is neglected, they do happen. These bets have a negative expected value and you will definitely have to book losses in the long term, regardless of whether you are currently in an upswing or a downswing.
A little tip from us: If necessary, place some cash next to the keyboard. For example, your maximum bet amount. That way you won’t lose touch with the money. Often the money is just a simple number on the screen, and you can’t really realize the value of it in reality, especially in bad phases and times of frustration betting. If, on the other hand, you always have the real value in front of you, you might think twice about whether you can reconcile the next live bet with your conscience, or whether there might not be more promising opportunities in the future.
Ways to maintain discipline when betting on sports
It is therefore important to constantly question your own actions and check whether you are really sticking to your strategy. A very important tool is a well-managed bookkeeping system that shows when which bet was made and with what stake, so that it is possible to check in retrospect whether you really made the right decisions or whether you were playing a frustrating bet after all.
If you start playing such bets, there are, in our opinion, only a few ways to get out of this phase without major losses. The best option is to simply take a break from sports betting to clear your head and get rid of the negative thoughts. After a week, for example, you can approach betting a little more freely and consciously and apply your own analysis process properly again, as you did in successful times. This minimizes the number of bets with a negative expected value and increases the number of those with value.
Adjust the stake amount to the bankroll – cushion the downswing
It is also important to constantly adjust the stake amounts to your own bankroll in a fixed rhythm during a downswing. If the bankroll increases, the stake can increase, but if it decreases, the stakes must be lowered again. This prevents the entire bankroll from being lost and thus withstands the variance described above, which is omnipresent in sports betting. In this way, reserves are built up during upswings, which you can draw on during a downswing. The only important thing is that the bottom line remains positive and that you can make a profit in the long term.